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Case-Shiller index : ウィキペディア英語版
Case–Shiller index


The Standard & Poor's Case–Shiller Home Price Indices are repeat-sales house price indices for the United States. There are multiple Case–Shiller home price indices: A national home price index, a 20-city composite index, a 10-city composite index, and twenty individual metro area indices. These indices are calculated and kept monthly by Standard and Poor, with data points calculated for the time period of January 1987 through the present. The indices kept by Standard and Poor are normalized to have a value of 100 in January 2000. These Indices are based on original work by economists Karl Case and Robert Shiller, in which their team calculated the home price index back to 1890. That index is normalized to have 1890 have a value of 100. The Case–Shiller Index being kept on Robert Shiller's website (http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm) is updated quarterly. Due to the different set reference points, and perhaps calculation differences, the index numbers provided in each data set can be very different. For example, in 4th quarter 2013, the Standard and Poor 20 city index point was in the 160's, while the index point for 4th quarter on the Shiller data was in the 130's. Professor Robert Shiller claims in his book ''Irrational Exuberance'' that such a long series of home prices does not appear to have been published for any country.
==History and methodology==
The indices are calculated from data on repeat sales of single-family homes, an approach developed by economists Karl Case, Robert Shiller and Allan Weiss who served as the CEO from the company's inception to the Fiserv sale. Case developed a method for comparing repeat sales of the same homes in an effort to study home pricing trends.〔 He was using data from house sales in Boston in the early 1980s, which was going through a housing price boom. While Case argued that such a boom was ultimately unsustainable, he had not considered it a bubble, a commonly used term to describe similar market trends.〔 Case sat down with Shiller, who was researching behavioral finance and economic bubbles, and together formed a repeat-sales index using home sales prices data from other cities across the country.〔 In 1991, while Weiss was in graduate school he formed an informal working relationship with Shiller. Weiss proposed to Case and Shiller to form a company, Case Shiller Weiss, to produce the index periodically with the intent of selling the information to the markets. Fiserv, an information management company, bought Case Shiller Weiss in 2002 and, together with Standard & Poor's, developed tradable indices based on the data for the markets which are now commonly called the Case–Shiller index.〔 CoreLogic acquired the Case Shiller Weiss business from Fiserv in April 2013.
2006–2012 saw the largest crash in global real estate markets in our history, but could this have been predicted using the Case–Shiller index? Shiller did see some early signs. He released the second edition of ''Irrational Exuberance'' book in 2005, when, according to him, the data looked like "a rocket taking off".〔 In his book he expresses skepticism over "the long-run stability of home prices",〔 given that the rise in home prices was much higher than the rise in income. However, he refrains from explicitly stating that this may be a bubble, after all the period after World War II had seen a substantial rise in real prices without any subsequent drop as apparent in the chart. The prices peaked in the first quarter of 2006, when the index kept by Shiller recorded a level of 198.01, but fell rapidly after that to 113.89 in the first quarter of 2012.
Options and futures based on Standard and Poor's Case–Shiller index are traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.〔http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/real-estate/files/spcaseshiller_fact_card.pdf〕
The index is a simplification of home values and does not account for imputed rent and home mortgage interest deduction, both of which are included in profit/loss considerations for investment purposes.

抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア(Wikipedia)
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